The 2023 outlook is clearly more optimistic than 2022, but this is not a signal that the challenges are entirely behind us

A challenging 2022 is expected to give way to a choppy but upside biased 2023 with bitcoin and ethereum surprising to the upside and great opportunities to add value

While painful, FTX’s scandalous fraud does not reflect on the underlying technology, and it galvanizes people to return to the principles of crypto

Short-covering appears to have trigger an upside break of a declining volatility range and we expect it may continue into the mid-$20K’s.

Central banks’ inability to maintain monetary integrity creates a compelling argument for alternative monetary technologies, like bitcoin, and that case will grow stronger as central banks pivot to looser monetary policy over the coming quarters.

Ethereum’s merge to Proof of Stake serves as a fascinating crypto focused event in the face of tough trad-fi macro conditions. Eventual implementation of the complex adjustment from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake may be exciting but it also leaves numerous question marks for censorship, incentives and the role of energy. We continue to view ETH as a complimentary high-beta asset to BTC reserve asset qualities.

Clearly there are lessons to learn and soul searching required. But contrary to the commentary from many pundits, the cleanse under way in crypto 2022 is one of its biggest strengths.

Bitcoin stands for itself and it is not controlled by any single party. The blocksize war entrenched these valuable principles but also inserted militaristic dogmatism into the culture.

This is a marathon, not a sprint. These are great levels for long-term investors to build allocations. However further volatility should be expected over the coming months.

Misplaced demand for stability, centralization and rehypothecation in crypto yield products masked deep credit risks and leverage under the hood. Crypto is violently solving these challenges and will arise from the liquidations stronger than before but there are major learnings to digest on that path.

Rising Treasury yields will likely send the US economy into a recession, pressure the US dollar higher and tighten global liquidity, which is the biggest risk to bitcoin over the coming months

The global monetary system is shifting and evidence is stacking up that bitcoin has a role to play in that transition as Russia takes further steps away from the US dollar.

We will only know in hindsight, but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting financial response from the west could be pivotal in the evolution of the global monetary system.

Rogue state demand is potentially a bullish price catalyst, and at the same time it is a PR nightmare. It is critical to return to the principles guiding your decision making to ensure you are not caught up in the narrative

The market structure has changed. A protracted bear market is unlikely. Fed tightening could create a tougher year for crypto but capital deployment will still result in bright sparks as numerous new entities are compelled to turn towards this powerful decentralized technology. Watch the Fed, the SEC and US stablecoin regulation closely to assess if we out/underperform expectations.

Wall Street’s growing importance is unavoidable as bitcoin goes mainstream, but correlations will not rise indefinitely and bitcoin’s independence remains in the hands of everyday users like me and you.

While decentralised bitcoin has displayed its resilience to regulation, bans and decreased the probability of a 51% attacks, centralised China may have handed a critical technology of the future to its peers.