Regime Change Signposts from Trump, Germany & Gold

Recent political shifts—from Trump’s America First policies to rising nationalism in Europe and movements in the gold market—reinforce our thesis: we’re in the middle of a monetary regime shift that favours Bitcoin as a neutral monetary technology. These are tectonic shifts—and the tremors are intensifying in 2025. What was once a slow rumble is now an undeniable shake-up. The bitcoin price may be weaker in 2025 thus far but we don’t expect that this will last into H2.

Trump's America First Policies

The Trump administration has pulled away from global coordination in a big way—ditching the Human Rights Council, the UN Relief and Work Agency, the WHO, and the Paris Agreement. They’ve also taken steps to realign U.S. foreign aid and could even dismantle USAID. All of this points to a broader retreat from the role of global hegemon. Maybe they’re just stepping back, maybe they see the writing on the wall—that U.S. dominance isn’t permanent—and they’re getting ahead of it.

Meanwhile, U.S. leadership is openly acknowledging a shift. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been making waves, pointing to the Chinese yuan’s growing role in global trade and the weakening dominance of the U.S. dollar. To me, that’s another key signal. Monetary, financial, and political structures are shifting. The world’s leader is changing its role. The old order is breaking down.

Now, sure, you could argue that Trump doesn’t represent the entire U.S. He’s divisive. Polls show that. But here’s the thing—he’s actually more popular now than he’s ever been, including during his first term. He won a serious mandate in the last election. Like him or not, his influence is real.

Germany's Biggest Political Shift since WW2

The recent national elections in Germany provide a clear datapoint. Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) pulled in a record 20.8% of the vote, making them the second-largest party in the Bundestag. Their rise speaks to growing public frustration over immigration, economic stagnation, and the failures of mainstream politics.

AfD is considered politically toxic by Germany’s establishment—much like Trump in the U.S. (who, unsurprisingly, voiced his support for them). While the Christian Democratic Union refused to form a coalition with AfD, their surge is impossible to ignore. Post-war Germany has been dominated by centrist parties, with fringe movements historically struggling to gain power. AfD’s surge breaks that pattern, signaling a deeper shift in voter sentiment and creating a major headache for the traditional political order.

This isn’t about making a value judgment on the German election outcome or Trump's policies. What matters is the bigger pattern: political instability is rising because the existing system is failing a growing percentage of people. This isn’t isolated to Germany or the US—distrust in legacy institutions is spreading worldwide, including financial ones. And when people lose faith in the system, they look for something different.

Non-consensus politicians rewrite the rules. Under Trump, even the once-untouchable global monetary system is now up for debate. The new administration has advocated for a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve but also appears cognisant of the role of gold in the monetary order. Elon Musk recently called for an audit of America’s gold reserves at Fort Knox.

Gold is Moving & Potentially Re-Monetising

Whether triggered by U.S. policy shifts or broader market forces, physical gold is being squeezed. It’s leaving London vaults, moving into the largest U.S. vaults, and fueling speculation of potential re-monetisation.

We’re not here to speculate on the specific remonetisation of gold. What is clear to us is that the global monetary system is under pressure, that these regimes don’t last forever, and that the shift is already happening.

The potential for sudden changes to the monetary system are much higher probability events today than they have been for 50 years. Under almost all scenarios neutral monetary assets like gold and Bitcoin stand to benefit. We are in a multipolar world with reduced global coordination and reduced demand for US Treasuries - monetary collateral favoured in the old regime. Whether major countries actually decide to monetise gold or bitcoin, the world needs these neutral pristine collateral assets and market is gravitating towards these assets.

Bitcoin is a Superior Technology to Gold

Some might argue that gold is the obvious winner in this environment. After all, central banks already hold significant gold reserves, and it remains deeply embedded in the global financial system. But Bitcoin isn’t just catching up—it’s outpacing gold in adoption, liquidity, and global integration.

The data is clear: Bitcoin’s $100B ETF flows in its first year dwarf gold’s recent inflows. If the market picks winners, Bitcoin is positioned to lead.

We don’t love Bitcoin vs gold debate—we appreciate both as monetary assets. But since we get so many questions on this, here’s our running list of why Bitcoin is the superior technology:

Fixed Scarcity – Bitcoin has a hard cap of 21 million coins, while gold supply can increase through mining and new discoveries.
No Centralized Control – Bitcoin issuance is governed by code, while gold’s price and supply are influenced by central banks, miners, and financial markets.
Easier to Store & Transfer – Bitcoin can be self-custodied on a hardware wallet and transferred globally in minutes. Gold requires vaults, security, and intermediaries.
Rapid Institutional Adoption – Bitcoin has the fastest adoption curve of any financial asset in history, now embraced by major institutions.
Fully Auditable & Transparent – Bitcoin transactions are verifiable on a public ledger, while gold reserves require trust in opaque audits.
Resistant to Confiscation – Gold has been seized by governments in the past (e.g., 1933 U.S. Executive Order 6102). Bitcoin’s decentralized nature makes this far harder.
Internet-Native Money – Bitcoin can be integrated into financial systems without intermediaries, unlike gold, which still requires a trust-based settlement process.
Turns Stranded Energy into Value – Bitcoin mining monetizes wasted energy, creating economic incentives that gold mining cannot match.

Gold Still Has Advantages so do not discount it:

Deeply Embedded Store of Value – Gold has held monetary value for thousands of years, spanning civilizations, crises, and economic cycles.
No Reliance on Technology – In the highly unlikely event of a global internet or power grid collapse, gold would still function as a physical store of value, while Bitcoin would be less accessible.
No Digital Traceability – Gold transactions leave no digital footprint, making it more private than Bitcoin, which operates on a public ledger.
Central Bank Preference – Governments already hold gold, meaning they are more likely to rely on it first in a crisis.

Gold has been hitting new record highs as investors seek alternative stores of value.

Bitcoin is down 30% vs gold since the December 2024 but bitcoin is an understandably more volatile asset. Over the past 2 years, bitcoin is up 93% relative to gold. There is a strong and significant upward trend in the ratio between these two assets.

Macro and Bitcoin Fundamentals Favour H2 Strength

The bitcoin price may be on a weaker trajectory in 2025 due to a weaker global macro environment and a reduction in risk appetite but we don’t think this will continue into H2.

Underlying data suggests have not entered a prolonged macro bear market. We appreciate that the trump tariffs are a big deal but the underlying data we keep an eye on paints a different picture. Stronger dollar and higher real yields were reasons to get more cautious earlier this year, but the dollar is dropping like a stone now and money supply growth is trending higher. These are both very positive for bitcoin.

Bitcoin fundamentals don't suggest bear market activity. Long-term holders have been selling down on holdings ever since we broke previous all-time highs, but selling interest from this cohort reduces during price weakness. Long-term holders still hold a significant portion of supply, which generally creates a price floor. Most of the selling pressure at these lowers levels is from short-term holders who are capitulating on purchases closer to all-time higher.

We are witnessing a global realignment in real time. Cracks in the U.S.-led financial system are widening, and open discussions of dollar alternatives are no longer fringe ideas—they are active policy considerations. The global financial order is shifting faster than most realize. The dollar’s dominance is eroding, Bitcoin and gold are stepping into the void, and institutional money has already begun its migration. This isn’t just speculation. It’s happening. And Bitcoin is positioned at the center of it.